On Tuesday, July 29, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from its April 2025 projection of 3.0%, according to the July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The IMF also raised Nigeria’s 2026 forecast to 3.2%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from 2.7%. This aligns with an upward revision for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, reflecting stable regional growth. Globally, the IMF projects 3.0% growth in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from April estimates.
Mr. Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, attributed Nigeria’s improved forecast to enhanced oil production and robust service sector performance, aligning with National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showing a 2.98% GDP growth in Q1 2025, driven by a 5.7% oil sector rebound. However, Abidoye cautioned that the modest single-digit growth remains insufficient to address Nigeria’s poverty rate, which stood at 38.9% in 2024 per NBS, with 84 million Nigerians living below the poverty line.
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