On July 7, 2025, Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Policy Communication, predicted during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, formed to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 elections, will collapse within six months due to its lack of ideological cohesion and failure to present alternative policies. Bwala described the coalition, which includes heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, David Mark, Rauf Aregbesola, and Rotimi Amaechi, as “internally displaced politicians” driven by personal ambition rather than a unified vision. He cited Labour Party’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate Datti Baba-Ahmed’s July 4 warning that the coalition’s excitement could be undermined by a contentious presidential candidacy race, noting, “Everybody wants to be president”
Coalition Dynamics and Criticisms
Bwala argued that the ADC, unveiled on July 2, 2025, at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, lacks credible policy alternatives, relying solely on criticism and press statements. He dismissed its threat to Tinubu’s re-election, claiming internal rivalries—particularly over the presidential ticket—will fragment the coalition by January 2026. He alleged Obi has conceded the ticket to Atiku, potentially vying for the vice-presidential slot or campaign director role, though Obi denied this on Sunday Politics, affirming his 2027 presidential ambition while supporting the coalition. The APC, through spokespersons like Felix Morka, labeled the coalition a “conclave of wild goose chasers” motivated by a “wolfish quest for power,” with no philosophical or ideological foundation. Katsina Governor Dikko Radda echoed this, questioning the coalition’s novelty and demanding specifics on policies like fuel subsidy reinstatement. Ekiti Governor Biodun Oyebanji also denied defection rumors, reaffirming APC loyalty.
ADC’s Response and Internal Challenges
ADC Interim National Chairman David Mark, at a July 8 stakeholders’ meeting in Kogi, emphasized transparency and neutrality, stating the party has no preferred presidential aspirant and urging the APC to address policy failures like insecurity, which worsened under Tinubu (1,500 terrorism deaths in Q2 2025, ACLED). Spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi clarified the coalition’s goal is to safeguard democracy, not just oppose Tinubu, warning against a one-party state reminiscent of the Abacha era. However, internal tensions emerged, with ADC lawmaker Leke Abejide dismissing the coalition as a “doomed venture” and 97 lawyers, led by Mohammed Sheriff, defending Mark and Aregbesola against a “fake lawsuit” allegedly filed by APC proxies. A faction of the Labour Party, led by Abayomi Arabambi, threatened to expel Obi for his ADC involvement, calling it unconstitutional, though the Esther Nenadi-Usman-led LP faction endorsed Obi’s coalition role.
Defections and Public Sentiment
The ADC has gained traction with defections from PDP and APC in states like Borno (Alhaji Idris Durkwa, Mohammed Umara Kumalia) and Ondo (Eyitayo Jegede, Agboola Ajayi), driven by dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s policies, including 33.9% inflation and naira devaluation to ₦1,600/$1 (NBS April 2025, CBN). Sheriff Banki, a Borno youth mobilizer, cited the failure of Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda as a catalyst for defections
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